December 2025
Trump’s Tariffs Cost U.S. Consumers
American consumers are negatively affected by the Trump Administration’s tariffs. More businesses are now fully passing on tariff expenses that many have been temporarily absorbing. At 16.8%, domestic consumers are facing the highest effective tariff rate since 1935, according to estimates by Yale’s Budget Lab.
| Selected Products | Short-Run Price Effects |
| Overall Effect | +16.8% |
| Leather Goods | +21.8% |
| Wearing Apparel | +21.0% |
| Electrical Equipment | +18.2% |
| Computers & Electronics | +17.0% |
| Textiles | +13.7% |
| Motor Vehicles &Parts | +12.7% |
| Source: The Budget Lab at Yale | |
The highest-tariffed product categories include everyday items purchased by American consumers, such as apparel, electrical equipment, computers and electronics, textiles, and motor vehicles and parts. They essentially function as a sales tax directly affecting U.S. businesses and consumers by hurting income, employment, and economic output across the U.S. economy.
A report by the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy think tank, estimates the tariffs are costing the average American household $1,200 in 2025 and $1,600 in 2026 in reduced purchasing power.
Economists warn tariffs can turn into a lasting tax on domestic consumers. Even if the tariffs are later partially or fully removed, companies may opt to keep prices elevated for a period and then only slowly and partially reduce them from the higher, tariffed cost.
Sources: The Budget Lab at Yale and The Tax Foundation
November 2025
President Trump Raises Tariffs on U.S. Imports, Soaring Over 600% from January 2025, The Highest Rates in Decades
President Trump has ratcheted up U.S. tariffs since the start of his second term on January 20, 2025, to their highest rates in decades, although some have been lowered or paused. The Trump Administration’s evolving tariff regime affects the business community, creating uncertainty for them and increasing prices for American retailers and consumers.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Tariff Tracker shows the simple average tariff rate on all U.S. imports from the world rose to more than 18% on all imports on October 1, 2025, from 2.6% at the beginning of the year, up more than a staggering 600%.
U.S. importers may absorb some of the extra costs associated with higher tariffs, at least for a time, but ultimately wholesalers and retailers will pass the added costs to consumers, especially if they remain in place over an extended period. Further, the Trump tariffs are added to all existing tariffs.
The Trump Administration’s tariff regime, which affects countries worldwide, has yet to be fully felt, but it has already shaken many U.S. businesses and disrupted established supply chains. The legality of Mr. Trump’s unilateral tariff regime is being challenged in U.S. courts. In addition, some countries have implemented and/or announced tit-for-tat retaliatory measures on U.S. exports or U.S. companies (e.g., China, Canada, and the European Union).
For a short analysis of recent tariff rates, read Content First’s analysis of Trump’s tariff regime.
Please Note: Content First will focus on data from international reporting agencies during the current extended U.S. government shutdown because federal statistical reporting agencies are currently shuttered and producing no new data.
Sources: World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund
October 2025
Cuts to R&D Threaten U.S. Economy
Research and development (R&D) is essential for current and future economic growth as it fuels innovation, boosts productivity, and creates new industries that drive long-term prosperity. The U.S. economy relies on R&D to remain competitive globally. In his second term, President Trump has proposed or enacted cuts to R&D funding, especially in science, health, and technology. Though courts and congressional negotiations have blunted some of these cuts, these perceived savings could have devastating long-term effects, from stalling the domestic economy to causing the United States to fall behind other nations competitively.
R&D value added, or contribution to the economy, as a share of state gross domestic product (GDP) measures a state’s commitment to research and development. The latest figures show that the nation’s value added as a share of total GDP is 3.4 percent. Only eight states achieved or exceeded that share in 2023:
| Rank | State | R&D Value Added as a Share of States’ GDP, 2023 |
| 1 | California | 5.9% |
| 1 | Washington | 5.9% |
| 3 | Massachusetts | 5.8% |
| 4 | New Mexico | 5.5% |
| 5 | Maryland | 4.4% |
| 6 | Delaware | 3.9% |
| 7 | District of Columbia | 3.6% |
| 8 | Michigan | 3.4% |
One common thread of the top three states is that each is home to a vibrant technology industry. The Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that more than half of all R&D value added in California, Washington, and Massachusetts was in two sectors: information and professional, scientific, and technical services.
The employment and wages of the men and women who work in R&D clearly demonstrate their economic impact. More than 3.2 million Americans worked in R&D in 2023, earning an average compensation exceeding $186,000. Employment in R&D topped 100,000 in 10 states:
| Rank | State | R&D Employment, 2023 |
| 1 | California | 687,900 |
| 2 | Texas | 194,900 |
| 3 | New York | 183,900 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 172,600 |
| 5 | Washington | 151,000 |
| 6 | Michigan | 129,500 |
| 7 | Maryland | 125,400 |
| 8 | Pennsylvania | 122,100 |
| 9 | Illinois | 109,400 |
| 10 | North Carolina | 108,800 |
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics
September 2025
Trump Trade Actions Affect U.S. Export and Import Markets
President Trump has imposed stiff retaliatory tariffs on many countries, including Canada, China, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and India. The Trump Administration’s recent trade arrangements raise many more questions than offer answers in large part because of its unpredictable trade policy. Trump’s extensive new tariff regime, the effects of which have yet to be fully felt, has already shaken many U.S. businesses, disrupted supply chains, and will surely increase costs for American businesses and prices for U.S. consumers. The legality of Mr. Trump’s unilateral tariff regime is being challenged in U.S. courts.
U.S. exports rose more than 6 percent in the second quarter of 2025 compared with 2024. Canada has been the largest market for U.S. goods exports for decades. But in the second quarter of 2025, it slipped to second, as U.S. exports to our northern neighbor dropped 9 percent from the second quarter of 2024. During the same time period, U.S. exports to Mexico also fell, but only by 2 percent, making it the top market for U.S. goods
Trump’s tariffs are significantly affecting U.S. import markets by imposing higher tariffs on most countries in recent months. U.S. import shipments rose about 1 percent in the second quarter of this year compared to 2024. Imports climbed a modest 3 percent from Mexico, the U.S.’s largest import market. At the same time, shipments from Canada slipped 15 percent and fell 36 percent from China in the last quarter of 2025.
For a short analysis of trade flows for the first six months of 2025, read Content First’s Facts Matter international trade report.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Commerce
August 2025
Small 2025 Drop in Foreign visitors to the United States in First Half of Year Masks Large Individual Country Swings
Many have speculated about the “Trump Effect” on the tens of millions of international visitors arriving in the United States each year (rising to more than 72 million visitors in 2024, a post-pandemic high). Trump Administration policies raise questions about how the America First rhetoric, travel bans, stricter immigration policies, tariff hikes, and soon- to-come new and higher visa fees will affect the U.S. travel and tourism economy.
Foreign visitors matter. In 2023, they spent more than $225 billion in the United States and supported 1.7 million American jobs. Data for 2025 shows a mixed picture on the Trump Effect.
For a short analysis of visitor flows for the first six months of 2025, read Content First’s Facts Matter international trade report.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Travel and Tourism Office
July 2025
American Jobs in Automotive Manufacturing Shrink in May 2025 from a Year Earlier
Domestic employment in motor vehicle and parts manufacturing is down by more than 2 percent in 2025, dropping by 22,400 workers to 999,700 in May 2025 compared with May 2024. Workers manufacturing cars and car parts fell below a million jobs in three of the five first months of 2025, compared with 2024 when employment exceeded one million jobs each month.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Automotive Industry: Employment, Earnings, and Hours
June 2025
U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing Faces Higher Costs Than Competitor Nations
A few East Asian countries, namely China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, dominate semiconductor manufacturing, while some semiconductors are made in Europe and the United States. Production costs in the United States are estimated to be 30% to 45% higher than fabricating chips in other countries for several reasons. In the United States, for example, semiconductor fabricators face higher operating and construction costs. They may also be given less direct government funding and more limited tax incentives than overseas competitors.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, Industrial Base Assessment of the Status of the Microelectronics Industrial Base in the United States
May 2025
U.S. Space Economy Supports Nearly 400,000 Jobs
America’s private sector space economy accounted for 373,000 full- and part-time jobs in 2023. However, employment shrank by 4% from 387,000 jobs in 2018. One subsector, educational services, bucked the trend up by 78% to 41,000 jobs in 2023. Total compensation for the U.S. space economy workforce amounted to $57.9 billion in 2023. In addition, the U.S. government employed approximately 19,700 workers in space-related jobs in 2023.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Space Economy
April 2025
Netherlands Rose to the Fourth-Largest U.S. Goods Export Market
U.S. merchandise exports to the Netherlands have risen substantially in the past five years, jumping 77% to $90 billion between 2019 and 2024. During that short time, the Netherlands’ position moved from 8th to 4th place as the United States’ largest goods export market. At $24 billion, the single-largest U.S. commodity sold to the Netherlands last year was crude oil, with sales soaring 300% since 2019.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online
March 2025
Textile and Apparel Factory Jobs Plunged 27% Since 2014
Domestic employment in textile and apparel manufacturing has continued to fall off in the past decade. In 2024, America’s textile and apparel industry employed roughly 100,000 fewer U.S. workers compared with 2014. This domestic manufacturing labor force contracted by 27% over the last decade. The U.S. employee count in apparel manufacturing shrank by 55,000 and in textile manufacturing by 45,800.
Textile mill workers’ average annual pay was $56,900, and apparel manufacturing workers earned $55,700 in 2023, compared with the average annual pay for private manufacturing workers of $82,575. The U.S. government forecasts both factory sectors are projected to continue to shed jobs between 2023 and 2033.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, and Employment Projections, 2023-2033
February 2025
Steel Industry Employment Down 8% Since 2014
Employing 138,900 American workers directly in 2024, the U.S. steel industry shed 12,400 jobs from 2014, a drop of 8.2% over the decade. Direct employment in U.S. steel mills— integrated mills and mini-mills—totaled 79,300 workers in 2024 and the remainder was in steel product manufacturing. Last year, the steel industry represented 1.1% of the nation’s 12.9 million U.S. manufacturing jobs. Steel mill workers’ average annual pay was $116,676, or roughly 40% more than the average annual pay for private manufacturing workers of $82,575 in 2023. The U.S. government projects a rise in employment at steel mills of 2.5% and drop in jobs in steel product manufacturing of 1.5% between 2023 and 2033.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, and Employment Projections, 2023-2033
January 2025
Renewable Electric Power Generation Jobs Projected to Grow the Fastest over Next Decade
The U.S. Government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects the fastest-growing industries by employment over the next decade will all be in renewable energies: solar electric power generation (+276%), wind electric power generation (+115%), other electric power generation (+47%), and geothermal electric power generation (+42%). The incoming Trump Administration has promised energy policies focused on fossil fuels, which could dampen these projections.
BLS forecasts jobs related to the production of fossil fuels, such as coal mining and fossil fuel electric power generation will shrink rapidly, dropping by 44% and 33%, respectively, through 2033.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections, 2023-2033